Quantitative Assessment of Influence Operations

The Project Tempest has been involved in understanding the complex nature of warfare today; a topic that requires a much greater emphasis on influence operations and other non-traditional means of forwarding objectives.

The Solution Traditional warfare has proven to be of limited value in modern day insurgencies. Elimination of individuals identified as threats is apparently of marginal long-term utility: other adversaries arise to replace fallen comrades. In order to counteract such opponents, we must work with civilian leaders and the population toward common objectives of peace and prosperity. Among the major challenges of implementing influence and information operations to persuade rather than attack is the quantitative understanding of how these efforts evolve. We have undertaken an in-depth modeling and data analysis effort to construct and analyze dynamical systems models, both compartmental and agent-based, to simulate the spread of information through populations.

The Outcome Members of the population may change affiliations based on social interactions with peers or responses to mass media marketing or environmental events. These efforts support an Air Force Center of Excellence in information operations that advises information officers in the field.